In public debate the same questions keep coming up: is Poland really facing a fuel crisis, or is this just another wave of panic stoked by social media and disinformation? Answers are offered by Wojciech Jakóbik, an expert at the Centre for Energy Security
To understand the current situation, the expert stresses, it is worth looking back at recent experience. “It is worth turning to the lessons of history — in particular to the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” Back then the information space quickly filled with reports that fuel was supposedly about to vanish from Polish petrol stations. At certain moments this even partly came true, but the cause was not a real shortage — it was the behaviour of consumers themselves. “In some cases fuel really did disappear — but because of logistical problems caused by panic buying.” The surge in demand overloaded the supply system and companies simply could not replenish stocks fast enough, which led to local disruptions.
As of today, Jakóbik stresses, there are no grounds to speak of a physical fuel shortage. “The security of oil, gas and fuel supplies in Poland is guaranteed above all by mandatory reserves.” These reserves have been built up in line with international requirements and can cover the country’s needs for several dozen days, even if it were completely cut off from outside supplies. At the moment, the only issue is potential difficulty with individual shipments of liquefied gas — nothing more.
Consumers may, however, feel a different kind of risk — in prices. “Fossil fuels are highly dependent on geopolitical shocks,” the expert explains. Fluctuations in world oil prices, changes in exchange rates and tensions in various regions of the world, notably the Middle East, have a direct impact on the final cost of fuel. As a result, it is not only petrol that becomes more expensive but other parts of the economy too — from transport to agriculture.
The widespread notion that prices at the pump simply follow oil prices is an oversimplification. “The price transmission mechanism is much more complex and not direct at all,” Jakóbik notes. The cost of fuel is made up of a whole range of factors: not only the price of oil but also the dollar exchange rate, since purchases are made in that currency; taxes, which can account for up to half the price; refining costs; and retailers’ margins. “Selling fuel is not charity,” the expert adds, underlining the economic nature of pricing.
The role of the biggest player on the Polish market, Orlen, is a separate subject of debate. Although the company does wield considerable influence, this does not mean it can set prices at will. “That does not mean the company can set prices arbitrarily,” Jakóbik stresses. Like other market players, it takes its cue from global benchmarks, although in some cases political intervention is possible — for example, through tax cuts or caps on margins.
Overall, it is global factors that remain decisive in setting prices. “These are fundamental things: the price of oil, the dollar exchange rate, the political situation and the level of risk.” Even events far away from Poland can directly affect the costs of households and businesses, because the energy market is global.
In the expert’s view, one of the main problems in public debate is a failure to understand how complex this market is. “Different levels often get mixed up — domestic politics and the global commodities market.” This creates fertile ground for manipulation and for the spread of simplified but emotionally powerful narratives.
At the same time, Poland is in a much better position today than it was a few years ago. “A great deal really has been done,” Jakóbik emphasises. The country has diversified its sources of supply, developed its infrastructure and significantly reduced its dependence on Russian energy. “Russian hydrocarbons have effectively disappeared from our market.” Yet it is impossible to escape the influence of global markets entirely, and that remains the key challenge.
No less important is the behaviour of consumers themselves, especially under information pressure. “We have already seen a sudden rush of people to petrol stations,” the expert recalls, referring to the start of the war in Ukraine. Such situations show that even without objective reasons, panic can create real, if temporary, problems.
In conclusion, Jakóbik calls for a rational approach. “Above all, it is worth staying calm and asking yourself a few basic questions.” Namely: are we dealing with real supply disruptions or merely with price fluctuations, how reliable are the sources of information, and are the alarming reports confirmed by official data? “It is precisely this approach that makes it possible to tell real threats from information noise.”
In short, the current situation does not point to the threat of a fuel crisis in Poland. The physical security of supply remains stable, while the main changes concern prices, which react to global processes. The greatest risk in this situation is not a shortage of resources but panic and disinformation.
Dr. Myroslav Trofymuk
Born in Lviv. Designer, director, musician, researcher, founder of ZEMLA STUDIO. Master of classical philology and digital marketing, PhD in the history of Ukrainian literature. Member of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine. Since 2022 he has authored the CENTRUM MUNDI audio show for Polish Radio for Ukraine, continuing the same research into the contemporary music scene in Ukraine and Poland.
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